China's Ethnic-policy Balancing Act

By NYO OHN MYINT
Junta dictator Snr-Gen Than Shwe is carefully and slowly moving away from 20 years of iron-fisted rule. Chinese influence, especially in the area of ethnic issues, could prove to be critically important.

Chinese president Hu Jintao publically supported Than Shwe during his state visit to Beijing in September, by essentially endorsing Than Shwe's roadmap to a civilian dictatorship.

 
As one of the richest countries in the world with US $2.6 trillion in reserves, China recently provided Burma with $4.2 billion in loans with no interest.  China is seeking  to counter potential US influence in the region. As a result of increased competition between the US and China in Asia, regional countries expect the Americans to seek greater consultation and coordination on key issues.

China and Burma both have in common governments that keep a tight rein on political freedom, free speech and a free press. 
However, the Burmese generals face problems that China, so far, has been able to avoid. Burma has real problems among the ethnic cease-fire groups, who are working to create more political space and autonomy along the Sino-Burma border.


China has been working to defuse a potential civil war, while balancing its interests among the ethnic groups and the military generals. Whether or not, China will be seen as an influence which can prevent anticipated renewed fighting in the months after the Nov. 7 election remains to be seen.

Some observers see the autonomous regions of China's ethnic groups as a potential model that could be emulated in Burma, but so far such an approach has gained little interest within the junta.
China has its own ethnic Kachin, Wa, Kokeng and Shan living in Yunnan Province who enjoy greater freedoms that their fellow ethnics living in Burma, who are still treated like  third-class citizens .


Also, as a potential model for Burma, China has experimented with political and social reforms to stimulate economic development, while Burma’s generals are still living in the 19th century with a dormant economy.

Presumably, China’s policy towards Burma will remain constant following the November election and the formation of the parliament. No doubt China  hopes the election will create a new political structure and more power sharing between the parliament and the junta, which can defuse the serious problems in ethnic regions and avoid all-out war. How that hope will play out in light of Than Shwe's history of running a one-man show is the question of the moment.

The Chinese strategy of balancing its need for Burma's resources while pressuring the junta to negotiate with cease-fire groups to avoid war is the issue that will dominate relations between the two countries following the election.

Nyo Ohn Myint is an exiled Burmese dissident based in Thailand