Than Shwe Hedges His Bets

 BY IRRAWADDY

Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win's confirmation yesterday that Snr-Gen Than Shwe will not be on the ballot in next month's election took nobody by surprise, but served as a reminder that many questions remain about the future of Burma's military strongman.

 Although there has never been any suggestion that Than Shwe planned to run in the Nov. 7 election, Burma's first in 20 years, observers have been watching recent changes at the top levels of the ruling regime closely for indications of what the country's post-election political landscape might look like.


According to military sources in Naypyidaw, Than Shwe is counting on the junta's proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), to win more than 80 percent of the seats up for grabs in the election in order to secure his future after decades of direct military rule.

But there are also signs that Than Shwe is not putting all his eggs in one basket and is intent on holding onto his position as commander-in-chief of the armed forces until the USDP is firmly in power.

In August, The Irrawaddy obtained an internal memo leaked by a regime insider indicating that Than Shwe and his deputy, Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye, along with six other top military officers, had stepped down from their senior military posts.

The memo did not state when these resignations would come into effect, but most observers believe that the senior military leaders will remain in their current positions until a new government is formed after the election.

The move was seen chiefly as a means of ensuring the loyalty of a new generation of military commanders—all reportedly handpicked by Than Shwe to succeed him and his senior colleagues—without actually handing power over to them before the post-election political transition is complete.

By staying on as commander-in-chief, Than Shwe will also be better able to preserve unity within the military at a time when there is growing dissatisfaction among senior officers who were forced to resign so they could run in the election as candidates for the USDP.
News of the reshuffle at the highest levels of the junta came four months after Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein and 26 other senior military officers quit the army to contest the November election.
Soon after the memo was leaked, other senior figures, including Gen Shwe Mann—considered to be the third most powerful member of the ruling military council—Gen Myint Swe and Gen Tin Aung Myint Oo, also resigned from the army to run in the election under the USDP banner.

However, military sources say that all three men have kept their distance from the USDP and have little respect for the party, which was formed earlier this year from the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), a mass organization founded by Than Shwe in 1993. According to one army source, “They want the USDP to lose in the election.”

Even Thein Sein, the mild-mannered prime minister, appears to have no real enthusiasm for his new position as leader of the USDP—a role thrust upon him because, according to a Defense Ministry source, Than Shwe didn't think Agriculture Minister Htay Oo, the secretary general of the USDA, could handle the job.

Than Shwe also has concerns about some of his other senior ministers, including Industry Minister Aung Thaung, who is close to the senior general but has many enemies in the armed forces. Aung Thaung, who is one of the richest and most corrupt members of the cabinet, will contest the election in central Burma.

But while Than Shwe seems to have his hands full with rearranging his inner circle ahead of the election, he has also been careful to signal that he doesn't intend to continue micromanaging from behind the scenes once the polls have closed and a new government has taken over—although few expect him to hand over the reins of power completely.

Some observers say that his recent renovations to a house in Kyaukse, his birthplace, are just subterfuge to convince his successors that he plans to go into retirement. Others,
meanwhile, note that he reportedly bought residences in Beijing during his recent visit to China, prompting rumors that he and his family are preparing to flee the country if the election does not go according to plan.

While there is no doubting Than Shwe's gift for manipulating those around him, his need for multiple contingency plans suggests that he still considers himself vulnerable to betrayal. Those who know him say that this is because he lacks the charisma that kept Ne Win's followers loyal to him long after he stepped down from power.